Who wins and who loses in PASO: at least one in three people plan to change their vote

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Argentina reaches the final stretch of the campaign for the primary, open, simultaneous and mandatory elections characterized by a moderate social optimism about the economic future and, above all, by the decision of a significant part of the electorate change your vote about the last step through the polls.

This is revealed by his latest installment Social and political humor Watch D’Alessio IROL/Berensztein made exclusively fromin the Chronicle. The study, conducted online in the last days of July with 1,071 adults across the country, shows that although political beliefs are confirmed as elections approach, part of society modifies its vote depending on the type of election they participate in.

And that’s it only 58% of respondents assured that the repeat of the vote issued two years ago, on the occasion of the parliamentary elections. Especially those who agree with the ruling Union for the Fatherland party or the opposition alliance Together for Change (JxC).

Instead, 29% assured that they will not and 13% are still undecided. Among those who have already decided not to repeat the vote, six out of ten voters of the libertarian forces stand out in 2021 and 52% of those who chose the left. But also one in four of those who chose JxC candidates and up to 17% of those who favored the then Frente de Todos government, in addition to 53% of those who had chosen lists from other parties.

In a power parity context, the position adopted by this group of voters can be decisive in determining who reaches the general election and with what support at the polls, especially given that even 20% of respondents have not decided who to vote for in STEP.

the most loyal voters

According to the display result, the most determined voter to keep their vote is official (76%). And these data are reflected in the best assessment he makes for the management of the Government based on the recovery of economic expectations. In JxC, the percentage drops to 63%, while in the left, which has multiple candidates, it reaches 34%, and in the libertarians, who will not have an internal dispute because they will only have Javier Miley as a presidential candidate for the specific area reaches 32%.

financial prospects

“This new measurement reinforces the trend of recent months, including the perception of the financial situation, both current and future, improves“, notes, in this regard, the consultant Eduardo D’Alessio and adds that” this brings with it a better image of government management for third month in a row among Frente de Todos voters’.

In fact, the report states that for 78% of pro-government respondents, the economic situation is better compared to the one experienced a year ago, a view shared by only 24% overall, 8 points more than the floor of 16% which was registered.this administration last April.

But basically today only one in two people thinks that within a year it will be worse. The data reflects a change in mood, as it is necessary to go back to the 47% recorded in March 2020 to find a lower level of pessimism in the Monitor about the future.

These days, optimism, climbing to 42% overall, is characterized by 78% of ruling party voters, two-thirds of those who chose the left, 19% of those who chose JxC and 15% of the libertarians. And The positive image of the administration of the government rose to 61% among pro-government supporters.

“While his detection problems from part of the population continues with the trilogy inflation (90% consider it the most worrying issue), insecurity (72%), economic uncertainty (69%), this does not seem to affect the management image of the ruling party’s own voters,” says D’Alessio, adding that “the bonus, exchange rate adjustments and the power of single reason of the goverment seems to create that change.”

The inside between Rodrguez Larreta and Bullrich

On the other hand, the eyes focus on his tone dispute between Patricia Bullrich and Horacio Rodrguez Larreta. From this point of view, and 33% of the respondents felt that the discussion is normal in an election contestwhile a 29% thought that it is not good but that it will be solveda view that reaches 33% and 43% respectively, among JxC voters.

On the contrary, a 30% believe that the winner’s rule at home is at stake, a view shared by both 40% of pro-government supporters and 38% of libertarians.