Food inflation: led by meat and flour, price increases accelerated in July

For both the government and private advisers, inflation in the staple food basket rose last month. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian

The government identified in July a acceleration in prices of a handful of key basket products and with a strong weight in their research inflationsuch as goods derived from flour and meats, according to internal research carried out daily by the financial group among large supermarket chains, where official controls are most effective. The research does not include nearby stores which represent 65% of consumption and are included in the CPI published by INDEC.

as far as he could tell infobae According to official sources, in July the increase in the basket measured by the technicians of the Ministry of Economy was 5% vs. 4.7% the previous month, which could set the stage for a consumer price index month higher than June. It is, in fact, the hypothesis that circulates among the estimates of consultants who follow the fluctuation of prices.

Surveys of major trading areas conducted by the government in July concluded that the majority of subgroups under study had a higher growth rate this month than in June. Among those with the heaviest weight in the basket, the carne had an increase of 3.2% vs. 2.6% which was registered a month ago. The cuts have apparently accelerated in recent days infobae.

The variation that gained the most speed from one month to the next was his flours, derivatives and cereals (they weigh, in the official survey, 17%, half of the meat). It was from 8% compared to 5.5% in June. The dairy and vegetables were one of the few exceptions: they rose in July 4.8% on the contrary 5.5% June and 1.4% on the contrary 7.5%, respectively. The fruits accelerated by 0.2% one 2.3% in the seventh month of the year, while soft drinks, water and juiceshad increases of 5.3%one percentage point more than a month ago.

Las alcoholic beveragein general, they had observations in large supermarkets of 5% compared to 4% in June, while those of personal care and his cleaning they were more restrained, even in this last distinction with a slight slowdown.

Market surveys show a general acceleration in prices after the monthly “floor” which marked June, with 6 percent, which will be the last official figures before the primaries. The next INDEC CPI will be announced on 15th of Augusttwo days after the STEP, along with the Central Bank’s Survey of Market Expectations (REM).

For LCG, for example, “in the fourth week of July the rise in food prices on average 3%, accelerating 0.7 points compared to the previous week. The food and beverage index presented a 5% monthly inflation average over the past 4 weeks and 7.4% end-to-end over the same period,” they said.

Equilibra, meanwhile, noted that its overall estimate of inflation is 6.6% for July, “showing year-on-year inflation of 113.9% and a rise of 60.6% in the first seven months of the year.” “In analyses, we expect the Core CPI to be above the general level, mainly from goods and services that do not correspond to the Food and drinks“, they assured.

For its part, the Libertad y Progreso Foundation estimated that “in the month of July, the IPC-LyP showed an increase 6.6%“, they counted. “This result signals an acceleration of the monthly rate of change of the price index by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous data reported by INDEC (6%). Accumulated inflation in the first seven months of the year is 60.6% (compared to 46.2% accumulated over the same period in 2022). For its part, the interannual variation amounts to 114%, just 1.6 points below the variation in July.”

Products derived from flour were among those with the sharpest increases in July, according to an official survey

Specifically, when measuring Food and Beverage, Liberad y Progreso found that this group “was once again under the general indexincreasing 6.0% and only in the last measurement (fourth week) had a significant increase inand ended up contributing 1.4 points on the index”.

Consultant Orlando J. Ferreres also conducted his own research in Greater Buenos Aires. “July inflation was 6.6% monthly and saw an annual increase of 120.5%. On the other hand, structural inflation strengthened at a monthly rate of 7.1%, marking an annual increase of 116.1%. Thus, accumulated headline inflation was 61.0% and structural inflation 61.4% in July,” it said.

Finally, C&T Asesores Económicos also closed its inflation estimate for GBA, with a general no. 7.7% and on an annual basis 122.1%. Among the explanations found is “the winter holidays and this made recreation one of the most dynamic items of the month (14%),” they said.

“However, a significant acceleration was seen in the vast majority of prices surveyed during the month, particularly from the third week, coinciding with the surge in blue and new official measures, which changed exchange rates and import prices. In this line, Food and beverages up 4.4% per month but with a strong acceleration during the second half of the month, particularly in baked goods, meats, vegetables and alcoholic beverages,” concluded C&T.

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